Buy / Sell Timing

The one idea underneath it. Finishing luck reverts to the mean; chance creation persists. A player converting far above his expected involvement is being carried by finishing, and finishing is the part that does not last. A player far below it is getting into the same positions and not being rewarded yet — which usually corrects, provided the minutes hold.

Why it beats form. Form is a record of what already happened, and by the time a run is obvious enough to chase, the price has moved and the field already owns him. Expected involvement measures the chances themselves, which is why it turns before the points do.

Selling high. A big positive gap is not an instruction to sell — it is a reason to check the rest. Does he take penalties? Have the fixtures just turned? Is the underlying volume rising as well as the conversion? A hot run on rising chances is a different thing from a hot run on flat ones.

Buying low. The green side is the harder read, because under-performance and being genuinely poor look identical for several weeks. The question that separates them is whether the chances are still arriving. If the involvement is there and the returns are not, that is a timing opportunity. If the involvement has gone too, it is decline.

The minutes floor matters. Everything here is filtered to 900+ minutes. Below that, one good afternoon produces a gap that looks like a signal and is noise.