Chip Targets

Chips are worth the most in the weeks the fixture list is lopsided. This reads every gameweek's structure — who plays twice, who does not play at all — against the model's expected points, to show where that lopsidedness actually is. 2026/27 data.

The season, by gameweek

double gameweekblank gameweeknormalbar height = mean projected points that week · model starts at GW8

Chip timing is fixture structure, not form

A chip is a multiplier on a week, not on a player. Bench Boost pays out on your worst five, Triple Captain on your best one, Free Hit on a squad you do not own. What they share is that their value comes almost entirely from how lopsided the gameweek is — and the fixture list publishes that months ahead, long before anybody knows who is in form.

Doubles and blanks are the whole game. A gameweek where six clubs play twice is worth several times an ordinary one to a Bench Boost, because eleven of your fifteen might play twice instead of once. A gameweek where six clubs do not play at all is where a Free Hit stops being a luxury. Everything else — form, price, who is captaining what — is a rounding error next to that.

Why this beats waiting.Chip decisions made in the week are made under time pressure with everyone else's takes in your ear. The structural part is knowable in advance, so the useful work is done early: know which weeks are lopsided, then decide nearer the time whether your squad can exploit them.

What the chart above is showing.Each bar is one gameweek: how many clubs play twice, how many do not play, and the model's expected points across the whole player pool for that week. Weeks that stand out on all three are the ones worth planning around.

This page will not tell you when to play a chip. It tells you where the structure is, which is the part that can be known. Whether your squad can take advantage of a given week — and how much rank you are willing to risk on it — is not something the fixture list knows.

The full argument, with the 2026/27 evidence behind it, is in chip strategy is fixture structure, not vibes.

Blank and double gameweeks

No blanks or doubles in this season's fixture list.

Two chip sets exist each season — one expiring at GW19, one for GW20–38 — so each of these can be played twice. Once 2026/27 is live these recommendations move ahead of the gameweek instead of describing a finished season.