Two pieces a week: the side the model picks before the deadline, and an honest read of how last week's calls actually went. What we believed, what we measured, what we changed because of it — including the attempts that failed.
De Cuyper and Groß have 53 points each and are the two most-bought players in FPL this gameweek. 8 of his points and 17 of Groß's are more than their chances imply, and Brighton's next two away games are Liverpool and Manchester City.
FPL rates Spurs and Coventry City easiest over the next six games (2.67) and Everton hardest (3.50). Our model disagrees on Coventry City: easy fixtures, but 9.3 goals expected against.
Erling Haaland projects 11.4 for Gameweek 7 at home to Ipswich, 3.9 points clear of anyone else. The last two armband calls sat inside our 2-point error. This one doesn't.
Isak and Gakpo are at 0% with no return date and Szoboszlai is at 75%. This season, 55 of 55 regular starters whose last flag before a deadline was 0% played no minutes. Here's who to move to.
Three attackers from one club score the same on average as three from different clubs (12.5 against 12.3) but blank more often: 21% of weeks at 6 points or fewer against 13%.
5 of the 6 most-sold players are at least 50 points from the −100 mark FPL's predictor appears to use. 1 player owned by 3% or more is projected to cross it before the Gameweek 7 deadline.
2,909,318 managers (26%) have already played their first Triple Captain, 1,787,071 of them in Gameweek 3. No double gameweek is scheduled before the Gameweek 19 deadline on Friday 1 January 2027.
Midfielders' DefCon hit rate correlated 0.82 between the two halves of 2025/26 and defenders' 0.67. Here is who is hitting it most in 2026/27 and who they play next.
Bruno Fernandes returned 1 point as our captain, and our eleven scored 47 against an average of 58. Our ranking beat ownership by 0.203, the second-widest gap we've published.
The Gameweek 10 and 11 deadlines are 15 days apart. After the last break 39 of 464 available players had picked up a flag, and 762,489 managers played a Wildcard in the first week back.
Of 48 regular starters whose last flag before a deadline in 2026/27 was 75%, 26 played, 21 started and 19 played 60 minutes or more. A 0% flag has meant no minutes in 55 of 55.
Bruno Fernandes projects 8.5 for Gameweek 6 and Erling Haaland 8.3. The gap is 0.2 points against an average error of 2.0, and both of our squads still make the same call.
The average and highest FPL score for every gameweek of 2026/27 so far. Cumulative average across Gameweeks 1–5 is 299 — check your own total against it.
The ten best points-per-million players under £6.5m, checked against our model. Seven are running hot. Two aren't, and they're the ones to look at first.
Nobody is guaranteed, but 19 players under £5.0m have played every minute of 2026/27 so far — eight goalkeepers and eleven defenders. 37 have started all five matches.
If one match is postponed after the deadline, your chip is spent and not returned. The armband, and a Triple Captain, pass to your vice-captain. A whole gameweek being called off is the exception.
Our model beat ownership by 0.227 Spearman, our widest gap yet. Our squad scored 36 with the captain doubled. The average manager scored 48. Both are true.
Jayden Bogle has beaten our xP model by 26.1 points over Gameweeks 3–5 of 2026/27, the largest gap of any player. The biggest over- and under-performers, ranked.
Nobody, yet. As at 22 September 2026, no Premier League player is on four yellow cards. Six are on three, two bookings from a one-match ban.
Our model's full 15 for the Gameweek 6 Wildcard, re-run on 6 October. £99.8m, 72.6 projected points in Gameweek 6, and Bruno Fernandes on the armband.
You get one free transfer a gameweek and can bank up to five. Five is a ceiling, not a savings account — a sixth week of saving adds nothing.
Yes, as long as you can put a £5.0m midfielder next to him. Haaland plus Ndiaye projects 108.1 over Gameweeks 6–13; the best pair without him projects 101.4.
The first- and second-choice penalty taker at all 20 Premier League clubs, as at 22 September 2026. Four clubs list a different first choice than on the eve of Gameweek 1, and five first-choice takers are injured.
Sell Kinsky. Hold Bruno Fernandes, Haaland and Calafiori. Wait on Palmer and João Pedro until their injury flags update. One rule, applied to all six, as at 22 September.
Almost never. Last season the model's best defender outscored its best attacker in 8 of 31 gameweeks and averaged 4.00 points to their 5.84. It rated a defender higher only twice, and he lost both times.
Penalty takers, suspensions, price changes, banked transfers, wildcard timing and five more — ten questions FPL managers ask, each answered on its own page with data as at 22 September 2026.
Once a night, at the 23:00 UTC cut-off (midnight UK time). FPL's own data now shows how close each player is to a change. Fifteen players changed price on 22 September 2026 — two up, thirteen down.
760,682 managers played their Wildcard in Gameweek 4 of 2026/27, the most of any gameweek so far. Most managers haven't played theirs yet — and 198,822 have already locked one in for Gameweek 6.
Our model out-ranked ownership by 0.062 Spearman, the widest gap of the season. Our squad scored 59 with the captain doubled. The average manager scored 69. Both are true.
Erling Haaland projects 7.3 for Gameweek 5, Bruno Fernandes 7.1. The gap is inside our error — but this week, unlike last week, both of our squads captain the same player.
Cole Palmer projects 7.29 for Gameweek 4, Erling Haaland 6.85. The gap is 0.44 points and our average error is 2.1, so it's a coin flip.
Our captain scored 9. The ten players around him scored 22. The average FPL manager scored 51. Here is where it went wrong.
Haaland is our highest projection of the season at 7.9, at home to the worst team in the league. Six of our top eight are Man City and you can only own three. Full squad, best value and differentials.
We projected 8.3 for our GW1 captain. He scored 2. This week the model has him higher — 9.4 — plus the full £100m squad, the best value and the GW1 scorecard.
We projected 8.3 points for our GW1 captain. He scored 2. The model's scorecard, the real differentials, and the GW2 moves the data actually supports.
We checked every 2025/26 appearance against its fixture difficulty rating. A player scores 4.93 in a rated-1 fixture and 2.47 in a rated-5. But the effect is far bigger for defenders than forwards.
Every Gameweek 1 fixture with its difficulty, the model's highest-projected player in each position, the captain call and the best value on the board. First of a weekly series.
We ran the same £100m squad optimisation at one, three, five and eight gameweeks. Between the one-week and three-week answers, seven of the fifteen players change. Only seven survive every horizon.
We took twelve FPL stats from the first half of 2025/26 and checked which ones predicted the second half. Points per 90 came seventh. Threat and xGI came first.
Both £100m squads our model would draft for Gameweek 1 — one built around Haaland, one that fades him. The gap is 6.2 points over eight weeks, and the real argument is not about points.
Live 2026/27 ownership across all 564 players. Haaland is in 75.1% of squads, Man City fills two slots in the average team, and 371 players sit under 1%.
Team name ideas built from this season's actual squad lists, how to set up a mini-league properly, and the rules worth knowing before the Gameweek 1 deadline.
The bonus points system was rebuilt to stop defenders double-dipping. We ran the new rules over last season's data to find who loses most. Senesi loses 63 BPS.
Tottenham's defensive overhaul repriced up, Man City's breakout stars costing more than the one who actually arrived, and Arsenal's biggest names cut by up to £1.6m — what it means for your draft budget.
Last season's points against this season's prices, for all 558 players. The best points-per-million in the game is a £4.5m defender — and the premium market has halved.
Everything that changed for Fantasy Premier League 2026/27 — the rules, the prices, the fixtures and the eight new managers — with the numbers behind each, from our own database.
Blank and double gameweeks decide when FPL chips pay, and they are knowable in advance. How the 2025/26 structure dictated Bench Boost GW33, Free Hit GW34 and Triple Captain GW36 — and how to read 2026/27's structure when it lands.
The 2025/26 Fantasy Premier League season reviewed from the database — final top scorers, the best points-per-million picks, the differentials that paid, and three lessons worth carrying into 2026/27.
A plain-English walkthrough of the FPL Analytics expected-points model — what goes in, what it predicts, how it scored against simple baselines across 31 gameweeks, and exactly where it still fails.
