We promised this. Last week's picks piece said that from Gameweek 2, we start by admitting what we got wrong. GW1 just finished, so here it is: the scorecard, the players worth knowing about, and what the data says to do before Friday's deadline.
The scorecard
Our captain pick was Bruno Fernandes, projected 8.3 points. Man Utd played Hull, rated an easy game. Hull won 2-0. Fernandes played the full match and scored 2 points.
| Pick | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes (captain) | 8.3 | 2 |
| Gabriel | 6.7 | 5 |
| Bruno Guimarães | 6.7 | did not play |
| Erling Haaland | 6.6 | 2 |
| Igor Thiago | 5.9 | 0 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 5.9 | 2 |
All six of our top picks fell short. Two of them, Bruno Guimarães and Viktor Gyökeres, didn't even make it onto the pitch. No model can see a team sheet before it's picked.
Is this a problem with the model? Not yet. GW1 projections are always the shakiest of the season — there's no fresh data on this season's squads to work from. One quiet week from six players is a coincidence until it repeats. What we can already say is where it went wrong, which is fixtures.
Why the "easy" fixtures lied
Three teams played newly promoted sides, rated easy wins. It only worked out once.
| Team | Rated | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Easy | Coventry (promoted) | Won 3-0 |
| Man Utd | Easy | Hull City (promoted) | Lost 0-2 |
| Sunderland | Easy | Ipswich (promoted) | Lost 1-2 |
Two "easy" games against promoted teams went to the promoted team. A newly promoted club with a settled manager can simply outplay a bigger name for ninety minutes — we've shown fixture difficulty predicts points on average, and "on average" always leaves room for a week like this one.
It wasn't only the promoted sides. Aston Villa lost 0-4 at Brighton, and Spurs lost 0-3 at Brentford — both fixtures rated close to even. Six of the ten games finished goalless at one end. That's the real reason so many big names blanked, and why the average score was a low 48.
Who actually hauled
These four scored 12 points or more from under 10% ownership.
| Player | Club | Owned | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maxim De Cuyper | Brighton | 4.7% | 17 |
| Jack Hinshelwood | Brighton | 1.5% | 16 |
| Nobel Mendy | Hull City | 1.9% | 15 |
| Semi Ajayi | Hull City | 1.4% | 14 |
The Brighton pair came from their 4-0 win over Villa. The Hull pair are both £4.0m defenders, combined ownership under 4% — and between them they outscored Haaland, Fernandes and Mbeumo put together. Hull's coaching staff say their subs on the day were cramp, not injury, so both should start again. More like this, updated daily, on the Differentials view.
One more cheap-defender note: about 1 in 6 defenders hit the new defensive-contribution threshold in GW1, roughly matching last season's rate — the rule change hasn't made it harder to reach, just changed what it's worth once you do. Check who's on penalties, free-kicks and corners on Set Piece Takers before Friday.
The template blanked
Haaland, Fernandes and Mbeumo are the three most-owned attacking players in the game. All three blanked in the same week, and all three were sold by tens of thousands of managers straight after — Fernandes hardest, over 80,000 net transfers out.
One blank at 50-70% ownership barely moves your rank, because most of the field owns it with you. It's noise until it repeats. Two names worth a longer look instead:
- Igor Thiago scored 0, but had the best chance of anyone in his match — 1.00 expected goals. That's a name to watch, not sell.
- Antoine Semenyo, owned by a quarter of the game, barely touched the ball in a threatening area all match. Worth checking before you rely on him again.
GW2 injury watch
None of this shows up in the API. It comes from Thursday and Friday press conferences.
- Newcastle: Will Osula went off hurt at 55 minutes and is a doubt. Captain Dan Burn has an ankle injury and is out roughly a month — a real problem for their defence.
- Spurs: four attacking players are doubtful or injured — Pedro Porro, Micky van de Ven, James Maddison and Mohammed Kudus — after a 3-0 loss.
- Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White has an ankle knock and is a doubt for Saturday. That's exactly why he's one of this week's most-sold players — the market already knows.
Sources: ESPN on Man Utd's defeat, and Fantasy Football Scout's GW2 injury updates.
What to do now
Look at the next five fixtures, not the last one.
| Team | Next 5 fixtures | GW1 result |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Best in the league | Drew 2-2 |
| Everton | Good | Won 2-0, clean sheet |
| Bournemouth | Worst in the league | Lost 1-2 |
Everton is the pick worth a look: a clean sheet already, and an easy run ahead. Their cheap defenders — Tarkowski and Keane, both in our GW1 picks — are exactly what the Fixture Swings view is built to find. Newcastle's fixtures are even better, but Burn's injury is a real risk at the back.
Don't panic-sell Haaland, Fernandes or Mbeumo over one blank. Nothing here says it repeats. If you're making a transfer this week, base it on a fixture run or the injury news above — not on revenge for Gameweek 1.
Build your XI on the Team Planner, check your own GW1 score on My Team, and the full stats table is on Players.
Next: Gameweek 2 picks. The fixture grid is on Fixtures, and the full Analytics Dashboard has everything this article was built from.