Deadline: Saturday 17 October, 11:00 BST. Prices, ownership and flags are as at Thursday 15 October, 04:55 BST.
The short version:
- Thierno Barry has the best chances of any forward at £6.1m or under: 4.40 expected goals in 502 minutes, and 3 goals to show for it. Everton's next three are Chelsea at home (4), Arsenal away (5) and Newcastle away (3), so Gameweek 7 is not his week. We project 4.1.
- For Gameweek 7 alone, our order is García 5.1, Calvert-Lewin 4.8, Barry 4.1, Evanilson 4.0. Gonzalo García (£6.1m) hosts Hull, rated 2. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m, 22.6% owned) hosts Manchester United, rated 4.
- Charalampos Kostoulas's 29 points are flattering. He has 2 goals and 3 assists from 1.36 expected goals and 0.07 expected assists.
Who are the cheap forwards, and what have their chances been?
The six we compared, all at £6.1m or under with at least 300 minutes, sorted by expected goals.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | Points | Minutes | Goals, from expected goals | Assists, from expected assists | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry | EVE | £5.7m | 8.7% | 26 | 502 | 3 from 4.40 | 0 from 0.16 | 6.0 |
| García | FUL | £6.1m | 7.2% | 16 | 511 | 1 from 3.00 | 0 from 0.59 | 2.0 |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | £6.0m | 22.6% | 24 | 509 | 2 from 3.00 | 1 from 0.08 | 2.0 |
| Emersonn | IPS | £5.6m | 3.9% | 28 | 387 | 2 from 2.05 | 1 from 0.13 | 2.0 |
| Evanilson | BOU | £6.0m | 3.6% | 25 | 514 | 1 from 1.48 | 3 from 0.62 | 4.5 |
| Kostoulas | BHA | £5.7m | 8.7% | 29 | 412 | 2 from 1.36 | 3 from 0.07 | 5.5 |
Two more qualify and aren't in the table because our Gameweek 7 numbers rate them lower: Delap (NFO, £5.6m) at 2.4 from 1.90 expected goals and Strand Larsen (CRY, £6.0m) at 2.4 from 1.41 expected goals.
Brian Brobbey (£5.7m, 5.1% owned) has 2.94 expected goals and would be on this list, but FPL has him at 0% with a hamstring injury, "Expected back 25 Oct". We don't project flagged players.
The three with the most expected goals all trail their chances. Barry has 3 goals from 4.40 expected, García 1 from 3.00 and Calvert-Lewin 2 from 3.00. That's unlucky, not poor, if the chance data is right. Kostoulas is the reverse: 5 goals and assists from 1.43 expected.
Who has the best Gameweek 7?
| Player | Next three: opponent and FPL rating | GW7 projection | GW7–12 projection | Average rating, GW7–12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| García | HUL (H) 2, COV (A) 2, AVL (A) 3 | 5.1 | 26.9 | 3.00 |
| Calvert-Lewin | MUN (H) 4, SUN (A) 3, BOU (A) 3 | 4.8 | 28.3 | 3.00 |
| Barry | CHE (H) 4, ARS (A) 5, NEW (A) 3 | 4.1 | 23.0 | 3.50 |
| Evanilson | SUN (H) 3, MUN (A) 4, LEE (H) 3 | 4.0 | 23.7 | 3.00 |
| Kostoulas | CRY (H) 2, LIV (A) 4, MCI (A) 5 | 3.6 | 20.6 | 3.17 |
| Emersonn | MCI (A) 5, NFO (H) 3, HUL (A) 2 | 3.1 | 21.5 | 3.17 |
Projections are from the 2026-10-14 run, after Gameweek 6. Calvert-Lewin's three: MUN (H) 4, SUN (A) 3, BOU (A) 3.
The gap between first and second is 0.3 points, well inside our average error of about 2. Pick on price and ownership as much as the projection. García is owned by 7.2% of the game, Calvert-Lewin by 22.6%.
Which one for the longer run?
Over Gameweeks 7 to 12 the model has Calvert-Lewin 28.3, García 26.9, Evanilson 23.7, Barry 23.0. Barry is fourth, and Everton's 3.50 average rating is the hardest in the league. Fixtures matter less for forwards than for defenders: in 2025/26 a forward scored 4.62 a start in a rated-2 fixture and 3.43 in a rated-5, against 4.75 and 1.89 for a defender (the numbers).
Barry's case is the chances, not the schedule. If 4.40 expected goals is real chance quality, he should score against hard fixtures too. That is checkable: we'll look at his Gameweeks 7 to 9 in the Gameweek 9 review, and say so either way. He ranks number 3 of these six for Gameweek 7.
Every price and projection is sortable on Players, and you can compare any two players on the Team Planner.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Which cheap forward are you playing in Gameweek 7? Name him. We'll score the order in the review.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this figure, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Show us your Gameweek 7 draft and why. Build it on the Team Planner, share the link, and name the one pick you'd defend against the model.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
The Gameweek 7 picks, with our model's full squad and captain: Gameweek 7 tips. Until the deadline: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.