Deadline: Saturday 17 October, 11:00 BST. Everton host Chelsea ninety minutes later, the first game of the round.
The short version:
- Captain Erling Haaland. We project 11.4. Man City are at home to Ipswich Town, the only fixture this week that FPL rates 5 for the away side. The next-highest projection is Rayan Cherki's 7.5. A 3.9-point gap is outside our average error of about 2, which wasn't true of either of the last two armband calls.
- Sell injured Liverpool players for the minutes, not the price. Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo are at 0%, Dominik Szoboszlai at 75%. We don't project anyone who's flagged, which removes 87 players this week. The detail is in our Liverpool piece.
- The squad costs £100.0m and projects 79.9 points from a 4-4-2. Gabriel has the best eight-week projection of any defender and isn't in it.
Every projection here comes from our model run on Wednesday 14 October, 21:38 BST, looking at Gameweeks 7 to 14, with six gameweeks played.
Who should I captain in Gameweek 7?
Erling Haaland, 11.4 projected. Man City host Ipswich Town on Saturday 17 October at 15:00 BST. FPL rates City's fixture 2 and Ipswich's 5.
Nobody else projects above 7.5. Rayan Cherki, City again, is second. Bruno Fernandes, our captain last week, projects 7.0 at Leeds.
This is the first wide gap of the season. In Gameweek 5 we called 7.3 against 7.1 noise. In Gameweek 6 it was 8.5 against 8.3, and the armband went to Fernandes, who scored 1. A 3.9-point gap is about two of our average errors. That doesn't make 11.4 a promise. Haaland scored 4 or fewer in 39% of his 2025/26 starts.
Our model has Ipswich with the weakest defence in the league. It expects City to score 3.0 goals on Saturday, their highest number of any game in the next eight.
Haaland is owned by 75.3%, so the armband protects rank more than it gains it. If you want a different captain, the honest reason is the ownership, not the projection.
What is the best £100m squad for Gameweek 7?
Fifteen players, real rules: 2/5/5/3, £100.0m, three per club maximum. Best starting eleven across Gameweeks 7 to 14.
£100.0m. 79.9 projected points for the Gameweek 7 eleven, captain doubled. 4-4-2.
| Pos | Player | Club | Price | Owned | GW7 projection | GW7–14 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKP | Konstantinos Tzolakis | HUL | £4.7m | 13.6% | 4.2 | 33.9 |
| DEF | Marc Guéhi (V) | MCI | £6.0m | 17.9% | 7.2 | 45.3 |
| DEF | Silva | BOU | £5.0m | 0.6% | 6.0 | 45.3 |
| DEF | Luka Vušković | BHA | £5.1m | 4.7% | 5.7 | 39.2 |
| DEF | Riccardo Calafiori | ARS | £5.9m | 52.4% | 5.4 | 43.6 |
| MID | Bruno Fernandes | MUN | £11.9m | 34.4% | 7.0 | 60.7 |
| MID | Bukayo Saka | ARS | £9.6m | 16.7% | 6.5 | 54.5 |
| MID | Bryan Mbeumo | MUN | £7.9m | 19.9% | 6.1 | 53.8 |
| MID | Jack Rudoni | COV | £4.9m | 0.1% | 4.2 | 35.2 |
| FWD | Erling Haaland (C) | MCI | £15.6m | 75.3% | 11.4 | 68.3 |
| FWD | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | LEE | £6.0m | 22.6% | 4.8 | 37.6 |
Bench in order: Martin Dubravka (TOT, £4.0m, goalkeeper), Bobby Thomas (COV, £4.0m), Brandon Thomas-Asante (COV, £5.0m), Will Hughes (CRY, £4.4m).
Gabriel projects 48.2 over the eight weeks, the most of any defender, and he isn't in the squad. He costs £7.9m. Guéhi and Silva project 45.3 each for £6.0m and £5.0m, so Gabriel's extra 2.9 points over eight weeks cost £1.9m to £2.9m more.
Jack Rudoni starts at 0.1% owned. He projects 35.2 over the eight weeks, the most of any midfielder at £5.0m or under. That's the slot that lets the squad carry Haaland, Fernandes and Saka at once.
Build the same squad for Gameweek 7 alone and 7 of the 15 stay. That squad projects 83.1 against 79.9, and it captains Haaland too.
Building from scratch with a Wildcard? Use the Team Planner, and check every pick's next six on the fixture ticker.
What do the Gameweek 7 fixtures look like?
Difficulty is FPL's own rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest), from each side's point of view.
| Kick-off (BST) | Home | Away | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17, 12:30 | Everton | 4 | Chelsea | 3 |
| Sat 17, 15:00 | Brentford | 4 | Liverpool | 3 |
| Sat 17, 15:00 | Fulham | 2 | Hull City | 3 |
| Sat 17, 15:00 | Man City | 2 | Ipswich Town | 5 |
| Sat 17, 17:30 | Newcastle | 3 | Aston Villa | 3 |
| Sun 18, 14:00 | Bournemouth | 3 | Sunderland | 3 |
| Sun 18, 14:00 | Brighton | 2 | Crystal Palace | 4 |
| Sun 18, 14:00 | Leeds | 4 | Man Utd | 3 |
| Sun 18, 16:30 | Nott'm Forest | 4 | Arsenal | 3 |
| Mon 19, 20:00 | Spurs | 2 | Coventry City | 3 |
Man City v Ipswich is the only 5 on the board. Spurs v Coventry is on Monday 19 October at 20:00 BST, so Rudoni plays after everyone else in our eleven.
The full season grid is on Fixtures.
Who can't our model see in Gameweek 7?
Two groups: the flagged and the barely played. Both are real points we don't put a number on.
87 players are flagged, and we leave them all out. The most-owned are Szoboszlai (27.6%, 75%), Kevin Schade (15.0%, 75%) and Isak (14.1%, 0%). Leaving out a 75% player costs us when he plays. In Gameweek 6 João Pedro and Cole Palmer were both at 75%, both played, and they scored 12 and 8. Across the season a 75% flag has meant 60 minutes or more 44% of the time (what a 75% flag means).
271 players have too few minutes for a number, and 92 of them have played. The top three by points so far:
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | Points | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles | EVE | £4.5m | 1.5% | 25 | 254 |
| Malick Yalcouyé | BHA | £4.5m | 3.8% | 21 | 258 |
| Johan Manzambi | AVL | £5.9m | 1.1% | 19 | 183 |
Our model needs 270 minutes before it projects anyone. That rule stops a single cameo from looking like a trend, and it means a breakout player is invisible to us for about three games. Treat silence from us as ignorance, not a verdict.
How did the model do in Gameweek 6?
Our ranking beat the crowd again, and our squad lost to the average manager again.
| Ranking by… | GW1 | GW2 | GW3 | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | +0.413 | +0.376 | +0.426 | +0.476 | +0.557 | +0.436 |
| Ownership — what the crowd picked | +0.360 | +0.394 | +0.414 | +0.414 | +0.329 | +0.233 |
| Average error, points per player | 2.05 | 1.99 | 2.02 | 2.19 | 2.00 | 1.94 |
| Hauls (6+ points) in our projected top 20 | 6/20 | 9/20 | 7/20 | 10/20 | 4/20 | 10/20 |
Our eleven scored 47 with the captain doubled. The average manager scored 58. That's the third week running below the average. The full Gameweek 6 review has the misses, including the Fernandes armband.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Show us your Gameweek 7 draft and why. Build it on the Team Planner, share the link, and name the one pick you'd defend against the model.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this figure, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Who's wearing your armband? If it isn't Haaland, tell us who and why. We'll score that split in the Gameweek 7 review.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
Next: the Gameweek 7 review, once FPL has added the bonus points. Until then: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.