A 75% flag has not meant a 75% chance of playing. For regular starters this season it has meant playing at all 59% of the time, and 60 minutes or more 44% of the time.
The short version:
- 75% is 27 cases, so read it as a direction. Of 27 regular starters flagged at 75% on the last snapshot before a deadline, 16 played and 12 played 60 minutes or more.
- 0% has meant 0. All 16 regular starters flagged at 0% before a deadline played no minutes.
- A 100% flag is a fit player. Regular starters whose injury news carried a 100% chance played 60 minutes or more 86% of the time, against 84% for players with no flag at all.
What did we measure?
We keep a daily snapshot of every player's flag, taken at each data refresh since 19 August. For each player in each of Gameweeks 2 to 6, we took the last snapshot before the deadline, within six days of it, and looked at the minutes he then played in that gameweek.
Most squad players aren't regulars. A player with no flag at all played any minutes in only 60% of player-gameweeks, because the group includes everyone on the bench. So the table that matters is the second one.
Everyone, with the flag they had at the deadline:
| Flag before the deadline | Player-gameweeks | Played any minutes | Played 60 or more | Average minutes | Average points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 877 | 1% | 0% | 0 | 0.01 |
| 25% | 9 | 11% | 0% | 5 | 0.11 |
| 50% | 18 | 28% | 11% | 13 | 0.39 |
| 75% | 97 | 36% | 22% | 21 | 1.04 |
| 100% (injury news, now fit) | 346 | 72% | 45% | 44 | 1.94 |
| No flag | 2,502 | 60% | 42% | 39 | 1.86 |
Regular starters only, meaning 60 minutes or more in at least three quarters of the gameweeks before it:
| Flag before the deadline | Regular starters | Played any minutes | Played 60 or more | Average minutes | Average points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 16 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.00 |
| 25% | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0.00 |
| 75% | 27 | 59% | 44% | 42 | 2.33 |
| 100% (injury news, now fit) | 97 | 94% | 86% | 77 | 2.86 |
| No flag | 738 | 93% | 84% | 75 | 3.49 |
There were no regular starters at 50% in these gameweeks. The 25% row is two players.
Who were the 27?
Played 60 minutes or more (12): Gibbs-White (NFO, GW2, 90'), Armstrong (EVE, GW5, 90'), Jair Cunha (NFO, GW5, 90'), Shaw (MUN, GW5, 83'), Havertz (ARS, GW6, 62'), Jacquet (LIV, GW6, 87'), João Pedro (CHE, GW6, 71'), Mainoo (MUN, GW6, 90'), Palmer (CHE, GW6, 87'), Rice (ARS, GW6, 90'), Semenyo (MCI, GW6, 90'), Van Hecke (TOT, GW6, 90').
Played under 60 (4): Hackney (EVE, GW2, 28'), Dedić (NEW, GW4, 57'), Gakpo (LIV, GW4, 30'), Rashford (MUN, GW6, 1').
Did not play (11): Georginio (BHA, GW2, 0'), Cash (AVL, GW4, 0'), Shaw (MUN, GW4, 0'), James (CHE, GW5, 0'), João Pedro (CHE, GW5, 0'), Röhl (EVE, GW5, 0'), L.Miley (NEW, GW6, 0'), Mykolenko (EVE, GW6, 0'), Robinson (FUL, GW6, 0'), Tzolis (ARS, GW6, 0'), van Ewijk (COV, GW6, 0').
Two things are worth seeing. Luke Shaw was flagged at 75% in Gameweek 4 and did not play, then flagged again in Gameweek 5 and played 83 minutes. And João Pedro was at 75% before both Gameweek 5 and Gameweek 6: he played 0 minutes, then 71 for 12 points. Cole Palmer was at 75% before Gameweek 6 and played 87 minutes for 8. We removed both from our projections that week, because we don't project anyone who's flagged.
The 14 cases in Gameweek 6, the first after the break, did better than the 13 before it: 8 of 14 played 60 minutes or more, against 4 of 13. With samples this small we wouldn't read that as a trend.
What should you do with a 75% player?
Treat 75% as a coin flip for a start, and a worse one for a full game. If he's on your bench and you can wait for the team sheet, you lose nothing. If he's in your starting eleven with no bench cover, you've taken a risk of about one in two that he plays less than 60 minutes.
For a 0% flag, the record says to plan without him. For a 100% flag, plan with him.
Who is at 75% now, owned by 3% or more, as at Tuesday 13 October, 18:16 BST:
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | FPL's news | Added |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai | LIV | £6.9m | 28.2% | Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing | 2026-10-11 |
| Schade | BRE | £6.2m | 15.2% | Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing | 2026-10-10 |
| Shaw | MUN | £4.3m | 6.8% | Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing | 2026-10-12 |
| James | CHE | £5.3m | 5.1% | Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing | 2026-10-10 |
| Mykolenko | EVE | £4.6m | 3.3% | Leg injury - 75% chance of playing | 2026-10-01 |
What can't we tell you?
- Why 75% underperforms. It may be that FPL sets 75% for any doubt at all, or that managers are cautious after an injury. We have flags and minutes, not reasons.
- Whether it holds. This is Gameweeks 2 to 6 of one season. We'll update this article after every gameweek, and the 44% will move.
- What the flag does for forwards or defenders separately. The sample is too small to split by position.
- Players flagged after the last snapshot. A team-sheet withdrawal the day of the match isn't in here.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Did you keep a 75% player last week, and did he play? Tell us the player and the gameweek, and we'll check him against this table.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this gameweek, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Tell us what you'd want to watch. A flag tracker on every player page, a weekly update, or something else.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
Next: the Gameweek 7 picks. Until then: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.