Spurs and Coventry City have the easiest next six by FPL's rating (2.67). Everton have the hardest (3.50). For a defender, our own numbers say that isn't the whole story.
Ratings are FPL's, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest), from each club's side, as at Thursday 15 October, 04:55 BST. The expected goals are from our model run of 2026-10-14.
The short version:
- Coventry City look easy and aren't a defensive buy. FPL rates their six 2.67, joint-easiest. We expect them to concede 9.3 goals over those six games, which ranks 18th of 20 where 1 is the fewest.
- Arsenal are the opposite. FPL rates their run 3.17, 11th-easiest. We expect 4.5 goals against, the fewest in the league. Man City are next at 5.7.
- The best attacking runs are Man City (11.7 goals expected), Man Utd (10.9) and Arsenal (10.6).
Which clubs have the easiest fixtures?
| Club | GW7 to GW12: opponent (home or away) and FPL rating | Average rating | Goals we expect them to score | Goals we expect them to concede |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | COV (H) 2, CHE (A) 4, CRY (H) 2, LEE (A) 3, IPS (H) 2, SUN (A) 3 | 2.67 | 8.2 | 7.8 |
| Coventry City | TOT (A) 3, FUL (H) 2, SUN (H) 3, EVE (A) 3, CRY (H) 2, LEE (A) 3 | 2.67 | 5.8 | 9.3 |
| Sunderland | BOU (A) 3, LEE (H) 3, COV (A) 2, CHE (H) 4, AVL (A) 3, TOT (H) 2 | 2.83 | 7.1 | 7.6 |
| Man City | IPS (H) 2, AVL (A) 3, BHA (H) 3, NFO (A) 3, FUL (H) 2, ARS (A) 5 | 3.00 | 11.7 | 5.7 |
| Crystal Palace | BHA (A) 4, NEW (H) 3, TOT (A) 3, LIV (H) 4, COV (A) 2, HUL (H) 2 | 3.00 | 7.3 | 7.7 |
| Chelsea | EVE (A) 3, TOT (H) 2, MUN (H) 4, SUN (A) 3, LEE (H) 3, NFO (A) 3 | 3.00 | 9.6 | 8.1 |
| Bournemouth | SUN (H) 3, MUN (A) 4, LEE (H) 3, IPS (A) 2, NFO (H) 3, FUL (A) 3 | 3.00 | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| Aston Villa | NEW (A) 3, MCI (H) 4, FUL (H) 2, MUN (A) 4, SUN (H) 3, IPS (A) 2 | 3.00 | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| Fulham | HUL (H) 2, COV (A) 2, AVL (A) 3, NEW (H) 3, MCI (A) 5, BOU (H) 3 | 3.00 | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| Leeds | MUN (H) 4, SUN (A) 3, BOU (A) 3, TOT (H) 2, CHE (A) 4, COV (H) 2 | 3.00 | 8.4 | 8.5 |
| Arsenal | NFO (A) 3, EVE (H) 3, LIV (A) 4, HUL (H) 2, NEW (A) 3, MCI (H) 4 | 3.17 | 10.6 | 4.5 |
| Brighton | CRY (H) 2, LIV (A) 4, MCI (A) 5, BRE (H) 3, HUL (A) 2, NEW (H) 3 | 3.17 | 8.9 | 7.6 |
| Hull City | FUL (A) 3, BRE (H) 3, IPS (H) 2, ARS (A) 5, BHA (H) 3, CRY (A) 3 | 3.17 | 5.8 | 9.8 |
| Ipswich Town | MCI (A) 5, NFO (H) 3, HUL (A) 2, BOU (H) 3, TOT (A) 3, AVL (H) 3 | 3.17 | 6.2 | 11.3 |
| Brentford | LIV (H) 4, HUL (A) 2, NFO (H) 3, BHA (A) 4, EVE (H) 3, MUN (A) 4 | 3.33 | 8.9 | 8.2 |
| Liverpool | BRE (A) 3, BHA (H) 3, ARS (H) 4, CRY (A) 3, MUN (H) 4, EVE (A) 3 | 3.33 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Man Utd | LEE (A) 3, BOU (H) 3, CHE (A) 4, AVL (H) 3, LIV (A) 4, BRE (H) 3 | 3.33 | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| Newcastle | AVL (H) 3, CRY (A) 3, EVE (H) 3, FUL (A) 3, ARS (H) 4, BHA (A) 4 | 3.33 | 7.4 | 9.1 |
| Nott'm Forest | ARS (H) 4, IPS (A) 2, BRE (A) 3, MCI (H) 4, BOU (A) 3, CHE (H) 4 | 3.33 | 6.8 | 9.1 |
| Everton | CHE (H) 4, ARS (A) 5, NEW (A) 3, COV (H) 2, BRE (A) 3, LIV (H) 4 | 3.50 | 7.4 | 8.3 |
"Goals we expect them to concede" counts the opponent's attack and the club's own defence. That's why it can disagree with the rating, which only describes the opponent.
Where do FPL's ratings and our numbers disagree?
| Club | Rank by FPL rating (1 = easiest, ties split by goals against) | Rank by goals we expect them to concede (1 = fewest) |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 2 | 18 |
| Arsenal | 11 | 1 |
| Brighton | 12 | 3 |
| Everton | 20 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15 | 8 |
Coventry City are the clearest case. Their rating is 2.67, but they are a promoted side with the weakest attack and one of the weakest defences in our model, so we expect 5.8 goals for and 9.3 against. Easy opponents don't make a leaky defence safe. Bobby Thomas at £4.0m is the player most affected, and his case is the DefCon floor (who keeps getting those points).
Arsenal's rating understates them. They face Liverpool and Man City in this run and still project the fewest goals against, because their defence is the best in our model.
How much does the rating matter?
For defenders, a lot. We checked every 2025/26 appearance of 60 minutes or more: a defender scored 4.75 a start in a rated-2 fixture and 1.89 in a rated-5. A forward went from 4.62 to 3.43 (the numbers).
So use the rating most for the back line, and use the expected goals to decide between two clubs the rating can't separate.
Which runs turn?
The first three games against the last three, by rating:
| Club | Average rating, GW7–9 | Average rating, GW10–12 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 3.67 | 2.67 | -1.00 |
| Everton | 4.00 | 3.00 | -1.00 |
| Bournemouth | 3.33 | 2.67 | -0.67 |
| Crystal Palace | 3.33 | 2.67 | -0.67 |
| Fulham | 2.33 | 3.67 | +1.33 |
| Hull City | 2.67 | 3.67 | +1.00 |
| Man City | 2.67 | 3.33 | +0.67 |
| Nott'm Forest | 3.00 | 3.67 | +0.67 |
A run that starts easy and ends hard is a reason to hold a player for three weeks and not six. The reverse is a reason to buy a gameweek or two early.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Which club's run are you buying? Name the club and the gameweek you'd start counting from.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This club, this fixture, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Show us your Gameweek 7 draft and why. Build it on the Team Planner, share the link, and name the one pick you'd defend against the model.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
The full season grid, with every club and every gameweek, is on Fixtures. We update this every Wednesday.
The Gameweek 7 picks, with our model's full squad and captain: Gameweek 7 tips. Until the deadline: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.