DefCon is the scoring line that repeats best. Last season, a midfielder's DefCon hit rate in the first half of the season correlated 0.82 with his second half. A defender's correlated 0.67.
The short version:
- Midfielders keep it, defenders keep most of it. The 20 midfielders with the highest first-half hit rate hit on 49% of their starts, then 48% in the second half. The 20 defenders went from 56% to 39%. Across all the defenders in the sample the second-half rate was 25%, and across all the midfielders 22%.
- A hot streak of four starts is a hint, not a rate. The leaders below have 4 to 6 starts each. Last season's rate is the better anchor.
- Forwards can't be confirmed yet. FPL's rule is 12, but only 1 of 215 forward appearances this season has reached 9 or more, so our data can't separate 12 from anything between 9 and 16.
What is a DefCon point?
Two points when a defender reaches 10 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles in a match, or a midfielder or forward reaches 12 including ball recoveries. The rule didn't change for 2026/27 (what did).
A defender who hits it on half his starts earns 1.0 point a start from it alone. This season 204 of 1518 defender and midfielder appearances have earned it.
Does DefCon repeat?
We split 2025/26 at Gameweek 19. We kept players with at least 8 starts (60 minutes or more) in each half, took their DefCon hit rate in each, and compared.
| Position | Players | Correlation, first half to second half | Top 20 hit rate, GW1–19 | Same 20, GW20–38 | All players, GW20–38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEF | 73 | 0.67 | 56% | 39% | 25% |
| MID | 71 | 0.82 | 49% | 48% | 22% |
Of the 20 defenders with the highest first-half rate, 7 still hit on at least half their starts in the second half. For midfielders it's 7 of 20. Our reading is that defender streaks fade because they're partly team effects: a side that defends deep and under pressure clears more. The midfielder rate looks more like a job description. The correlations are measured. The explanation isn't.
Who is hitting it now?
Starts are 60 minutes or more. Hits are 10 actions for defenders and 12 for midfielders. Sorted by 2026/27 hit rate, then by last season's.
| Player | Pos | Club | Price | Owned | Hits, 2026/27 | Hits, 2025/26 | Next three (rating) | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainoo | MID | MUN | £5.5m | 1.5% | 5 of 5 | 6 of 16 | LEE (A) 3, BOU (H) 3, CHE (A) 4 | 75% |
| Murillo | DEF | NFO | £5.5m | 2.1% | 5 of 6 | 9 of 23 | ARS (H) 4, IPS (A) 2, BRE (A) 3 | 100% |
| Pinnock | DEF | COV | £4.5m | 0.1% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | TOT (A) 3, FUL (H) 2, SUN (H) 3 | fit |
| Hill | DEF | BOU | £5.5m | 0.8% | 4 of 6 | 14 of 23 | SUN (H) 3, MUN (A) 4, LEE (H) 3 | fit |
| Tarkowski | DEF | EVE | £6.2m | 18.4% | 4 of 6 | 22 of 37 | CHE (H) 4, ARS (A) 5, NEW (A) 3 | fit |
| Botman | DEF | NEW | £5.0m | 0.8% | 4 of 6 | 11 of 20 | AVL (H) 3, CRY (A) 3, EVE (H) 3 | fit |
| Janelt | MID | BRE | £5.0m | 2.5% | 4 of 6 | 7 of 15 | LIV (H) 4, HUL (A) 2, NFO (H) 3 | fit |
| Branthwaite | DEF | EVE | £5.5m | 2.6% | 4 of 6 | 3 of 7 | CHE (H) 4, ARS (A) 5, NEW (A) 3 | fit |
| Richards | DEF | CRY | £4.9m | 0.6% | 4 of 6 | 13 of 31 | BHA (A) 4, NEW (H) 3, TOT (A) 3 | fit |
| Thomas | DEF | COV | £4.0m | 8.8% | 4 of 6 | no 2025/26 record | TOT (A) 3, FUL (H) 2, SUN (H) 3 | fit |
| Muharemović | DEF | LEE | £5.0m | 4.5% | 4 of 6 | no 2025/26 record | MUN (H) 4, SUN (A) 3, BOU (A) 3 | fit |
| Silva | DEF | BOU | £5.0m | 0.6% | 4 of 6 | no 2025/26 record | SUN (H) 3, MUN (A) 4, LEE (H) 3 | fit |
Bobby Thomas is the example of how noisy a single game is. He made 22 defensive actions on Monday night, more than double the threshold, and it was worth the same 2 points as 10.
Data to Monday 12 October. Last season's hits use the same thresholds and the same 60-minute definition.
What should you do with it?
Use it as a tiebreaker between players at the same price, not as a reason to buy. If two £4.5m defenders have the same fixtures, take the one who hit on 50% of starts last season and is hitting this season. The floor is worth about a point a start.
Fixtures still decide most of a defender's week, so check the next three before you commit. The run for every club is in our fixture ticker and on Fixtures, and every player is on Players.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Which defender or midfielder do you buy for the DefCon floor? Name him and his price. We'll check him against this table.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this figure, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Tell us what you'd want to watch. A weekly DefCon list, a forward version once the threshold is confirmed, or something else.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
Next: the Gameweek 7 picks. Until then: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.