Sell Antonín Kinský. Hold Bruno Fernandes, Erling Haaland and Riccardo Calafiori. Wait on Cole Palmer and João Pedro until their injury flags update. Same rule for all six, as at 22 September.
The rule. Sell a player if a fully fit player in the same position, costing the same or less, is projected to score more over Gameweeks 6–13. Hold him if nobody is. Our model doesn't project flagged players, so a flagged player gets no verdict until the flag changes. There are 18 days until the 10 October deadline, so you have time to wait.
Should I sell João Pedro?
Wait. João Pedro carries a fresh flag, "Knee injury — 75% chance of playing", and the model won't project him until it changes.
The market isn't waiting. 261,988 managers sold him in this window as at 21 September, the most of any player in the game, and his price has already dropped to £7.7m. Over Gameweeks 3–5 he scored exactly what the model expected: 13.1 expected, 13 scored.
If you do sell now, the best fully fit forward at his price or less is Kai Havertz (£7.6m, 38.0 over Gameweeks 6–13). For £0.1m more, Igor Thiago projects 40.3.
Caveat: waiting costs you if his price keeps falling. Selling costs you if the flag clears.
Should I sell Cole Palmer?
Wait. Cole Palmer carries a live flag, "Muscular injury — 75% chance of playing", so the model isn't projecting him.
Over Gameweeks 3–5 the model expected 17.0 points from him, and he scored 8. As at 21 September, 69,476 managers had sold him in this window and 34,987 had bought.
If you do sell now, the best fully fit midfielder at his £9.7m or less is Bukayo Saka (£9.5m, 54.4 over Gameweeks 6–13). The next best is Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m, 53.3), and he leaves you £1.8m.
Caveat: Palmer is Chelsea's first-choice penalty taker. A 75% flag can clear well before 10 October.
Should I sell Bruno Fernandes?
Hold. Bruno Fernandes projects 61.0 over Gameweeks 6–13, the second-highest figure of any player in the game. The best midfielder at his £11.9m or less is Saka, 6.6 points behind.
That puts the model squarely against the market. 127,111 managers sold him in this window as at 21 September, second only to João Pedro. Over Gameweeks 3–5 he was expected 21.1 points and scored 6. That 15.1-point shortfall is the worst in the game, and the model has now seen it and still rates him.
The counter-argument: Manchester United go to Chelsea and Liverpool in Gameweeks 9 and 11, both rated 4.
Caveat: a finishing slump this long is also how a player's role starts to change. The model would see that only after it happens.
Should I sell Kinsky?
Sell. Bart Verbruggen costs the same £4.5m and projects 30.8 over Gameweeks 6–13. Antonín Kinský projects 26.0. Bernd Leno, also £4.5m, projects 30.7.
Spurs go to Manchester United and Chelsea in Gameweeks 6 and 8, both rated 4. The market got there first: 73,485 managers sold him in this window and 9,415 bought, as at 21 September.
The counter-argument: Kinský is the one player here who beat the model, with 9.3 expected over Gameweeks 3–5 and 15 scored.
Caveat: goalkeeper points swing hardest week to week, and 4.8 points over eight gameweeks is a modest gap.
Should I hold Erling Haaland?
Hold. Erling Haaland projects 69.7 over Gameweeks 6–13, the highest figure in the game. The best forward at his price or less, Igor Thiago, projects 40.3.
He has 39 points, the most of these six. And he is being bought, not sold: 45,751 in against 11,362 out in this window, as at 21 September.
The counter-argument: Gameweek 6 is away at Liverpool, rated 4. At 73.6% ownership, holding him gains you almost no rank.
Caveat: whether that money works harder elsewhere in the squad is a different question. Is Haaland worth his price? answers it.
Should I sell Riccardo Calafiori?
Hold, just. Riccardo Calafiori projects 42.9 over Gameweeks 6–13. The best fully fit defender at his £5.8m or less is Bournemouth's Silva, at £5.0m and 42.6.
He is 50.6% owned, and his transfers turned positive this window: 44,675 in against 37,925 out, as at 21 September.
The counter-argument: Arsenal go to Liverpool in Gameweek 9 and host Manchester City in Gameweek 12, both rated 4.
Caveat: Silva is 0.3 points behind and £0.8m cheaper. If you need the money, that swap costs you almost nothing.
The six at a glance
| Player | Price | Projected GW6–13 | Best fit alternative at same price or less | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | £7.7m | flagged, not projected | Havertz, £7.6m, 38.0 | Wait |
| Palmer | £9.7m | flagged, not projected | Saka, £9.5m, 54.4 | Wait |
| Bruno Fernandes | £11.9m | 61.0 | Saka, £9.5m, 54.4 | Hold |
| Kinský | £4.5m | 26.0 | Verbruggen, £4.5m, 30.8 | Sell |
| Haaland | £15.6m | 69.7 | Thiago, £7.8m, 40.3 | Hold |
| Calafiori | £5.8m | 42.9 | Silva, £5.0m, 42.6 | Hold |
The two biggest sell-offs in the game are João Pedro and Bruno Fernandes. The model backs holding Bruno, and can't rate João Pedro until his knee is cleared. Try any of these swaps in the Team Planner.
Caveat. Projections come from our model's 22 September run, which covers Gameweeks 5 and earlier. Its average error is about 2.1 points per player per gameweek. xP against actual covers Gameweeks 3–5 only. Prices and flags are as at 22 September. Transfers and ownership are as at 21 September.