Yes, as long as you can put a £5.0m midfielder next to him. Erling Haaland projects 69.7 points over Gameweeks 6–13, the most of any player in the game. No other forward is within 29 points of him.
The fair test is two squad slots against two, for the same money, fully fit players only. The alternative to Haaland isn't a cheaper forward on its own. It's a cheaper forward plus the money moved into midfield.
Against other forwards
| Two forward slots | Cost | Projected GW6–13 |
|---|---|---|
| Haaland + Calvert-Lewin | £21.6m | 105.6 |
| Best two other forwards at any price up to £21.6m: Havertz + Thiago | £15.4m | 78.3 |
No pair of other forwards comes within 27 points of Haaland and a £6.0m partner. If your money is staying in the forward line, Haaland isn't a question.
Against moving the money into midfield
| One forward slot + one midfield slot | Cost | Projected GW6–13 |
|---|---|---|
| Haaland + a £4.5m midfielder (Slater) | £20.1m | 89.6 |
| Haaland + Diego Gómez | £20.6m | 102.6 |
| Haaland + Ndiaye | £21.4m | 108.1 |
| Best pair without Haaland: Thiago + Bruno Fernandes | £19.7m | 101.4 |
Haaland plus Iliman Ndiaye projects 6.7 points more than the best pair without him, for £1.7m more. Haaland plus Diego Gómez still wins, by 1.2, for £0.9m more.
The line is £5.0m. With only a £4.5m midfielder beside Haaland, the pair without him wins by 11.8.
What changed
Our model's run of 8 September had this comparison as a dead heat. The 22 September run includes Gameweeks 4 and 5. It raised Haaland's projection and moved him ahead of Bruno Fernandes, so the verdict moved. That is what the model is meant to do after two more gameweeks of evidence. It's also why the verdict comes with a date.
The case against this verdict
- Gameweek 6 is a hard start, away at Liverpool (rated 4). Manchester City also go to Arsenal (rated 5) in Gameweek 12.
- He isn't beating his number. Over Gameweeks 3–5 he was expected 22.1 points and scored 24. The projection is doing the work, not a hot streak.
- Ownership cuts the other way. At 73.6% owned, holding him protects your rank rather than gaining it.
Captaincy doesn't change the answer. Double the best player on each side and Haaland's 69.7 is still ahead of Bruno Fernandes' 61.0.
Where this has happened before
Haaland's points per £1m of starting price, every season in our database:
| Season | Start price | Points | Pts per £m |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | £11.5m | 272 | 23.65 |
| 2023/24 | £14.0m | 217 | 15.50 |
| 2024/25 | £15.0m | 181 | 12.07 |
| 2025/26 | £14.0m | 239 | 17.07 |
| 2026/27 | £15.5m | 39 in 5 gameweeks | 19.1 on current pace |
On current pace, this is his second-best value season in five, not his worst. 39 points in five gameweeks projects to 296 over 38. That's only a pace. Last season he had 46 after five gameweeks and finished on 239.
What would flip this
- Your budget. If the most you can put beside him is £4.5m, the pair without him wins.
- Ndiaye's minutes. He has started four of five. With a £5.0m partner instead, Haaland's lead drops to 1.2 points.
- A knock. Haaland is fully fit as at 22 September. The model drops any flagged player, and this comparison with him.
Check any of these players on the Player Explorer, or try both routes in the Team Planner.
Caveat. Projections come from our model's 22 September run, which covers Gameweeks 5 and earlier. Its average error is about 2.1 points per player per gameweek. Prices are as at 22 September.