Deadline: Saturday 17 October, 11:00 BST. Figures are from FPL's own data as at Thursday 15 October, 05:04 BST.
5 of the 6 most-sold players this gameweek are at least 50 points from the −100 line at the third cut-off: Isak, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Schade and Wissa. The exception is Bruno Fernandes (39.4 away).
The short version:
- Sell the injured Liverpool players because they won't play, not because of the price. Isak and Gakpo are at −21.5 and −17.5.
- 1 player owned by 3% or more is projected past −100 within three cut-offs: Tzolis.
- No one owned by 2% or more is projected past +100 before the deadline.
How do we read FPL's price numbers?
Prices change once a night at the 23:00 UTC cut-off, midnight UK time. FPL's data carries a progress figure for every player, an hourly rate, and a projection for each of the next three cut-offs. FPL doesn't explain them. Our reading is that ±100 is the point of a change, which is what our earlier piece found on 22 September. It's a reading, not FPL's statement.
2 cut-offs fall before the Gameweek 7 deadline: Thu 15, Fri 16. FPL projects the next three, so that covers both.
This gameweek 43 players have fallen in price and 13 have risen. 1 is at or past −100 now, and 0 are at or past +100.
Who is closest to falling?
Owned by 3% or more and at −75 or lower on FPL's scale.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | Progress now | Hourly rate | Projected at the next three cut-offs | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tzolis | ARS | £6.3m | 6.4% | −97.7 | −203 | −99.4 / −101.4 / −103.5 | 0% |
| Wirtz | LIV | £7.3m | 5.2% | −94.0 | −20 | −94.5 / −95.2 / −95.9 | fit |
| Elanga | NEW | £6.1m | 3.0% | −92.7 | −62 | −93.8 / −95.1 / −96.4 | 0% |
| Mbeumo | MUN | £7.9m | 19.9% | −89.5 | −38 | −89.8 / −90.1 / −90.5 | fit |
| Diop | IPS | £4.0m | 11.6% | −83.7 | −42 | −84.2 / −84.9 / −85.5 | fit |
| Virgil | LIV | £6.5m | 15.8% | −83.0 | −14 | −83.1 / −83.3 / −83.4 | fit |
| Mamadou Sangaré | BRE | £5.6m | 8.2% | −81.2 | −93 | −82.8 / −84.8 / −86.9 | fit |
| Kinsky | TOT | £4.5m | 15.7% | −79.7 | −11 | −79.8 / −80.0 / −80.1 | fit |
Tzolis is projected to cross −100 by the third cut-off. The rest are close, and a bad run of results or a team-news story can move any of them.
Why aren't the most-sold players falling?
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | Transferred out this gameweek | Progress now | Projected at the third cut-off | Distance from −100 at the third cut-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | £11.9m | 34.4% | 306,925 | −53.6 | −60.6 | 39.4 |
| Isak | LIV | £9.0m | 14.1% | 293,648 | −21.5 | −25.0 | 75.0 |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | £6.9m | 27.6% | 282,499 | −39.1 | −45.1 | 54.9 |
| Gakpo | LIV | £7.1m | 7.6% | 207,287 | −17.5 | −21.8 | 78.2 |
| Schade | BRE | £6.2m | 15.0% | 161,251 | 10.4 | −1.8 | 98.2 |
| Wissa | NEW | £6.3m | 17.9% | 144,895 | −39.4 | −50.4 | 49.6 |
These six have been transferred out the most this gameweek. Isak, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Schade and Wissa are nowhere near the line; Bruno Fernandes is closer. FPL doesn't publish its rule, and we don't know why a player sold by 306,925 managers sits at −53.6 while a player sold by 138,209 sits at −97.7. What we can say is that the progress figure doesn't track transfers out one for one.
That makes the sell decision simple. If you are selling Isak, Gakpo or Fernandes, you aren't racing a price fall, so don't take a hit for it.
Who is closest to rising?
Owned by 2% or more and at +85 or higher.
| Player | Club | Price | Owned | Progress now | Hourly rate | Projected at the next three cut-offs | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis | IPS | £4.0m | 7.7% | 98.2 | −24 | 97.9 / 97.5 / 97.1 | fit |
| Janelt | BRE | £5.0m | 2.5% | 89.0 | −5 | 89.0 / 88.9 / 88.8 | fit |
| Evanilson | BOU | £6.0m | 3.6% | 85.3 | +22 | 85.6 / 86.0 / 86.4 | fit |
Our call, scored on Saturday
These are FPL's projections, selected by ownership. We're scoring how well FPL's predictor holds, not ours.
- Cheaper by Saturday 17 October, 10:00 UTC than they are now: Tzolis.
- Dearer: none.
- Not cheaper, though they're among the most sold: Isak, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Schade and Wissa.
- Too close to call: Bruno Fernandes.
Current prices: Tzolis £6.3m, Isak £9.0m, Szoboszlai £6.9m, Gakpo £7.1m, Schade £6.2m, Wissa £6.3m, Bruno Fernandes £11.9m.
We'll score the split in the Gameweek 7 review. Prices for every player are on Players, and your own squad's value is on My Team.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Which price change are you trying to beat this week? Name the player and the night.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this figure, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Tell us what you'd want to watch. A nightly price list, a rise-and-fall scorecard, or something else.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
The Gameweek 7 picks, with our model's full squad and captain: Gameweek 7 tips. Until the deadline: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.