Owning three attackers from one club doesn't change what you expect to score. It changes how often you score very little. Across 861 club-gameweeks in 2025/26 and 2026/27, a club's three most expensive attackers scored 12.5 combined on average. Three attackers from three different clubs scored 12.3.
The short version:
- The spread is wider. Three from one club combined for 6 points or fewer in 20.7% of weeks, against 13.0% for three clubs. They combined for 20 or more in 15.0% against 10.6%.
- Two defenders from one club move together far more than two attackers. Teammate defenders' points correlate +0.51. Defenders from different clubs correlate 0.00. For attackers it's +0.09.
- City's next five are easy to like, and the sixth is Arsenal away. Manchester City's fixtures: IPS (H) 2, AVL (A) 3, BHA (H) 3, NFO (A) 3, FUL (H) 2, ARS (A) 5.
What have City done?
6 wins in 6, 16 goals scored, 5 conceded and 3 clean sheets. They lead the table on 18 points, three clear of Arsenal. Erling Haaland is owned by 75.3% of the game, so for most managers a City triple-up is a question about the other two or three.
| Player | Pos | Price | Owned | Points so far | GW7–11 projection | GW12 (Arsenal away) | GW13 (Leeds home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | FWD | £15.6m | 75.3% | 45 | 45.0 | 5.7 | 9.5 |
| Cherki | MID | £7.9m | 32.1% | 44 | 30.3 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| Gvardiol | DEF | £5.8m | 28.1% | 41 | 24.8 | 3.4 | 5.2 |
| Guéhi | DEF | £6.0m | 17.9% | 36 | 29.8 | 4.1 | 6.2 |
| Semenyo | MID | £8.3m | 13.8% | 36 | 29.4 | 4.0 | 6.2 |
| Donnarumma | GKP | £5.5m | 7.6% | 28 | 20.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
Projections are from the 2026-10-14 run, after Gameweek 6.
Does owning several players from one club change your risk?
We took every gameweek of 2025/26 and 2026/27, and every pair of teammates who both played 60 minutes or more. We compared how their points moved together with pairs from different clubs in the same gameweek.
| Pair of teammates who both played 60 minutes or more | Pairs | Correlation of their points, same club | Correlation, different clubs |
|---|---|---|---|
| attackers (midfielders and forwards) | 10,788 | +0.09 | −0.01 |
| defenders | 5,661 | +0.51 | 0.00 |
| a defender and an attacker | 18,881 | +0.11 | −0.02 |
Defenders move together because a clean sheet is a team result. Two defenders from one club are close to a single bet. Attackers barely do: +0.09 is a small tilt, not a lock-step.
The trio test is the one that matters for a triple-up. For each club-gameweek where the three most expensive attackers all played 60 minutes or more, we added their points. We compared that with three attackers drawn from different clubs in the same gameweek.
| Three attackers | Average combined points | Combined 6 or fewer | Combined 20 or more |
|---|---|---|---|
| From one club | 12.5 | 20.7% | 15.0% |
| From three clubs | 12.3 | 13.0% | 10.6% |
About the same average, a wider range. Triple up and you get more of the 20-point weeks and more of the 6-point ones. That's a reason to do it if you're behind and want variance. It's not a reason if you're protecting a rank.
Limits. The sample is 861 club-gameweeks across two seasons. A trio only counts if all three played 60 minutes or more, so a week where one was injured is missing from both sides. We drew the three-club trios at random with a fixed seed, so the exact figures move a point or so with the draw. The direction held.
What do City's next six look like?
| Gameweek | Opponent | FPL rating | City goals we expect | City goals against we expect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW7 | IPS (H) | 2 | 3.03 | 0.63 |
| GW8 | AVL (A) | 3 | 1.77 | 1.09 |
| GW9 | BHA (H) | 3 | 1.95 | 0.91 |
| GW10 | NFO (A) | 3 | 1.78 | 0.93 |
| GW11 | FUL (H) | 2 | 2.24 | 0.74 |
| GW12 | ARS (A) | 5 | 0.97 | 1.36 |
Rated 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, then 5. City have the highest expected goals scored of any club over this run and the second-fewest expected against. That's what the model says triple-up managers are buying. Fixtures has the other 19 clubs.
Should you sell before Arsenal in Gameweek 12?
Gameweek 12's deadline is Friday 27 November, 18:30 GMT, six days after Gameweek 11's and after the November break. That is a long way off, and prices and injuries will move before it.
What the model says now: Haaland projects 5.7 for the Arsenal game, the lowest of his seven numbers, and 9.5 the week after at home to Leeds. We wouldn't sell him for one game. Two transfers to dodge a dip of about 3.5 points isn't worth it.
The defenders are a different question. Because teammate defenders move together, owning two City defenders into a rated-5 away game doubles the exposure. Guéhi and Gvardiol are the pair to look at, and that decision belongs in Gameweek 11, once you know whether you have free transfers banked (how the November break works).
One price note on Rayan Cherki, at £7.9m. Cherki has already risen £0.1m this gameweek, to £7.9m, and FPL's predictor has him at 12.3, nowhere near another rise before the deadline.
Tell us where this is wrong
- How many City players do you own, and would you add a third? Tell us your count and why.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This pair, this table, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Show us your Gameweek 7 draft and why. Build it on the Team Planner, share the link, and name the one pick you'd defend against the model.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
The Gameweek 7 picks, with our model's full squad and captain: Gameweek 7 tips. Until the deadline: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.