Deadline: Friday 18 September, 18:30 BST. Brentford host Chelsea ninety minutes later, the only game before Saturday.
The short version:
- Captain Erling Haaland. We project 7.3. Manchester City are at home to Sunderland, the only 5-difficulty fixture anywhere in Gameweek 5.
- Bruno Fernandes projects 7.1. The gap is 0.23 points, well inside our 2.19-point average error. Unlike last week, that doesn't matter here: our best-over-the-horizon squad and our best-for-this-week-alone squad both captain Haaland anyway.
- Mamadou Sangaré is in the squad this week. Last week's piece put him on the players our model can't see. He's crossed our 270-minute threshold and is now the joint-best midfielder in his price band.
Every projection here comes from our model run on Wednesday 16 September, 08:36 BST, looking at Gameweeks 5 to 12.
Who should I captain in Gameweek 5?
Erling Haaland, 7.3 projected. The highest single-week number in the game right now. Manchester City host Sunderland, who carry the only difficulty-5 fixture anywhere on the Gameweek 5 board — the widest gap between any two sides in the round.
Bruno Fernandes projects 7.1. Manchester United are away at Fulham, rated a middling 3 for both sides.
The gap is 0.23 points, and our average error is 2.19 points per player per gameweek — that gap is noise, not a signal. What's different from last week is that noise doesn't decide it here: both the best-over-the-horizon squad below and the best-for-this-week-alone squad captain Haaland independently. Last week the two squads split on the armband and the article printed both without saying which one to follow. This week they agree, so there's one number: captain Haaland.
He's now owned by 72.3% of the game, up from 71.2% last week, and was already the most-captained player in Gameweek 4.
What is the best £100m squad for Gameweek 5?
Fifteen players, real rules: 2/5/5/3, £100.0m, three per club maximum. Best starting eleven across Gameweeks 5 to 12.
£100.0m exactly. 68.0 projected points for the Gameweek 5 eleven, captain doubled. 3-4-3.
| Pos | Player | Club | Price | Owned | GW5 projection | GW5–12 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKP | Konstantinos Tzolakis | HUL | £4.6m | 10.8% | 4.4 | 36.3 |
| DEF | Silva | BOU | £5.0m | 0.4% | 5.7 | 46.0 |
| DEF | Gabriel | ARS | £8.0m | 23.5% | 5.2 | 44.8 |
| DEF | Anan Khalaili | CRY | £5.0m | 0.3% | 4.3 | 37.6 |
| MID | Bruno Fernandes (V) | MUN | £12.0m | 41.8% | 7.1 | 61.3 |
| MID | Bryan Mbeumo | MUN | £7.9m | 22.9% | 6.1 | 52.5 |
| MID | Marcus Tavernier | BOU | £6.1m | 5.3% | 5.5 | 42.5 |
| MID | Mamadou Sangaré | BRE | £5.7m | 12.2% | 4.9 | 38.0 |
| FWD | Erling Haaland (C) | MCI | £15.5m | 72.3% | 7.3 | 57.1 |
| FWD | João Pedro | CHE | £7.8m | 75.2% | 5.2 | 44.2 |
| FWD | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | LEE | £6.0m | 22.4% | 4.8 | 36.7 |
Bench in order: Martin Dubravka (TOT, £4.0m), Bobby Thomas (COV, £4.0m), Leif Davis (IPS, £4.0m), Will Hughes (CRY, £4.4m).
Silva is our top defender again, still at 0.4% owned, and this week his fixture doesn't obviously earn it. Bournemouth host Liverpool, rated a difficult 4. He's here on rate, not fixture — the model's own number for him over the next eight games is the best of any defender in the game, and last week's actual return (3 points) neither confirms nor denies that. We're publishing him again because the number hasn't moved, not because the case has gotten stronger.
Mamadou Sangaré couldn't be projected at all until this week. Last Gameweek's piece listed him among the players our model can't see yet — 210 minutes, short of our 270-minute qualifying line. He's played enough since to cross it, and he walks straight into the squad at 4.9 projected for Gameweek 5, joint-best in his price band. That's the eligibility rule working as designed: no invented number while he was short, a real one the week he qualified.
Build the same squad for Gameweek 5 alone and 7 of the 15 stay — the same overlap as last week, but this time it doesn't touch the captain. The one-week squad swaps in Tarkowski, Thiaw, Neco Williams and Kevin Schade for pure Gameweek 5 upside and gives up 2.9 points of horizon value doing it — 70.9 projected for one week against 68.0 from the squad built to last eight.
Build your own fifteen on the Team Planner.
What do the Gameweek 5 fixtures look like?
Difficulty is FPL's own rating, 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest), from each side's point of view.
| Kick-off (BST) | Home | Away | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 18, 20:00 | Brentford | 4 | Chelsea | 3 |
| Sat 19, 12:30 | Spurs | 3 | Aston Villa | 3 |
| Sat 19, 15:00 | Brighton | 4 | Arsenal | 3 |
| Sat 19, 15:00 | Everton | 2 | Ipswich Town | 3 |
| Sat 19, 15:00 | Newcastle | 2 | Hull City | 3 |
| Sat 19, 17:30 | Nott'm Forest | 2 | Coventry City | 3 |
| Sun 20, 14:00 | Bournemouth | 4 | Liverpool | 3 |
| Sun 20, 14:00 | Leeds | 3 | Crystal Palace | 3 |
| Sun 20, 14:00 | Man City | 2 | Sunderland | 5 |
| Sun 20, 16:30 | Fulham | 4 | Man Utd | 3 |
Man City v Sunderland is the standout: the only 5 on the board, and the only fixture with a three-point gap between the two sides' ratings. Every other game this week rates within one point either way.
The full season grid is on Fixtures.
Who are the best differentials for Gameweek 5?
Under 5% owned, ranked over the Gameweek 5–12 horizon.
| Player | Club | Pos | Price | Owned | GW5 projection | GW5–12 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silva | BOU | DEF | £5.0m | 0.4% | 5.7 | 46.0 |
| Elliot Anderson | MCI | MID | £6.3m | 4.2% | 5.1 | 39.9 |
| Anan Khalaili | CRY | DEF | £5.0m | 0.3% | 4.3 | 37.6 |
| Malick Thiaw | NEW | DEF | £5.0m | 2.2% | 5.5 | 36.0 |
| Enzo Fernández | MCI | MID | £6.9m | 3.3% | 4.6 | 35.1 |
Two Manchester City names on a differentials list is unusual, and it's a squad-depth effect, not a form call. Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernández are both projected on City's fixture list and minutes share, at 4.2% and 3.3% owned against Haaland's 72.3% — the same team, priced and owned completely differently depending on which shirt.
Silva tops it again — see the squad section above for the caveat that comes with him.
How did the model do in Gameweek 4?
We beat the crowd by the widest margin of the season, and the squad still finished below average. Both happened in the same gameweek.
Here is every one of the 289 players we published a number for before the Gameweek 4 deadline, with no filters:
| Ranking by… | GW1 | GW2 | GW3 | GW4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | +0.413 | +0.376 | +0.426 | +0.476 |
| Ownership — what the crowd picked | +0.360 | +0.394 | +0.414 | +0.414 |
| Average error, points per player | 2.05 | 1.99 | 2.02 | 2.19 |
| Hauls (6+ points) in our projected top 20 | 6/20 | 9/20 | 7/20 | 10/20 |
A 0.062 gap over ownership, more than five times Gameweek 3's. Our squad still scored 59 with the captain doubled against an average manager score of 69 — ranking players correctly and picking eleven of them for one fixed week are different tasks, and Gameweek 4 is the clearest split we've published between the two. The full Gameweek 4 review has the captain-line contradiction, the Manchester derby bet, and Jayden Bogle hauling from under 2% owned for the second week running.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Show us your Gameweek 5 draft and why. Build it on the Team Planner, share the link, and name the one pick you'd defend against the model.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this figure, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Did you read last week's headline or its table? We want to know which captain you actually played, Palmer or Haaland — it's the clearest thing we've had to fix in five weeks of this.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
Next: Gameweek 6 picks and the Gameweek 5 scorecard. Until then: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.