Deadline: Saturday 17 October, 11:00 BST. Prices, ownership and flags are as at Thursday 15 October, 04:56 BST.
The short version:
- Hold Maxim De Cuyper and Pascal Groß through Gameweek 7. Don't buy either for the run. Brighton are at home to Crystal Palace, rated 2. Then come Liverpool away (4) and Manchester City away (5). Our model has De Cuyper at 5.6, 4.1 and 3.2 for Gameweeks 7 to 9.
- Some of the points won't repeat. Of De Cuyper's 53, 21 came from goals and assists where his chances imply 12.8. For Groß it's 30 against 13.3.
- Luka Vuskovic is the less-owned copy. £5.1m, 4.7% owned, 40 points, and a 29.7 projection for Gameweeks 7 to 12 against De Cuyper's 28.7.
What has Brighton actually done?
4 wins in six, 18 goals scored, 5 conceded and 4 clean sheets. The defeat was 3-4 at Chelsea; the draw was 1-1 at home to Leeds. Our model ranks them 4th in the league on team strength, up 2 places since the start of the season.
That is a real run. It's also six games, and the question is what it says about the next six.
How much of De Cuyper's and Groß's 53 points each will repeat?
Points come from five places. Appearance points and clean sheets repeat if the team keeps playing and keeping them out. Goals and assists repeat only as far as the chances do. FPL's feed gives expected goals and assists for every appearance, so we can price the chances.
| Player | Points | From appearances and clean sheets | From goals and assists | What the chances imply | Difference | From bonus and DefCon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Cuyper | 53 | 28 | 21 | 12.8 | +8.2 | 8 |
| Vuskovic | 40 | 28 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 8 |
| Groß | 53 | 16 | 30 | 13.3 | +16.8 | 9 |
| Kostoulas | 29 | 10 | 17 | 5.6 | +11.4 | 3 |
De Cuyper scored 21 points from goals and assists. His 1.80 expected goals and 0.67 expected assists imply 12.8. That's 8.2 points above. He's a real threat for a defender, and the 8 bonus points are on top of it.
Groß scored 30 against 13.3, a gap of 16.8. He has 3 goals from 2.02 expected and 5 assists from 1.05. Charalampos Kostoulas has the same pattern: 17 points against 5.6.
None of that says they'll score less. It says the price you're paying is the points already scored, not the points the chances predict. The clean sheets are the part Brighton's defence earns, and 4 in six is a high rate to hold.
What does the run from Gameweek 7 look like?
| Gameweek | Opponent | FPL rating | Brighton goals we expect | Brighton goals against we expect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW7 | CRY (H) | 2 | 1.66 | 0.85 |
| GW8 | LIV (A) | 4 | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| GW9 | MCI (A) | 5 | 0.91 | 1.95 |
| GW10 | BRE (H) | 3 | 1.62 | 1.15 |
| GW11 | HUL (A) | 2 | 1.60 | 0.96 |
| GW12 | NEW (H) | 3 | 1.82 | 1.09 |
Rated 2, then 4, 5, 3, 2, 3. The average rating is 3.17, which is the middle of the table. The shape is what matters: the easy home game is first, and the two hardest away games come straight after it. That matters most at the back: our 2025/26 data has defenders scoring 4.75 a start in a rated-2 fixture and 1.89 in a rated-5 (the numbers).
| Player | Price | Owned | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW7–12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Cuyper | £5.1m | 35.7% | 5.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 28.7 |
| Vuskovic | £5.1m | 4.7% | 5.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 29.7 |
| Groß | £6.0m | 39.8% | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 27.5 |
| Kostoulas | £5.7m | 8.7% | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 20.6 |
Projections are from the 2026-10-14 run, after Gameweek 6. Gameweek 7 is De Cuyper's highest, Groß's second-highest and Vuskovic's highest of their six numbers. That is the case for holding through Saturday and moving on, rather than buying for six weeks.
Who is the alternative?
De Cuyper's 5.6 is the number 6 defender projection for Gameweek 7. Ahead of him: Guéhi 7.2, Silva 6.0, Gabriel 6.0, Gvardiol 6.0, Vuskovic 5.7.
Vuskovic is the pick owned by fewer, at the same price. £5.1m and 4.7%, against £5.1m and 35.7%. Vuskovic has already risen £0.1m this gameweek, to £5.1m, and FPL's predictor has him at 1.2, nowhere near another rise before the deadline.
Bart Verbruggen (£4.6m, 21.9% owned) is the other Brighton price to watch. Verbruggen has already risen £0.1m this gameweek, to £4.6m, and FPL's predictor has him at 1.1, nowhere near another rise before the deadline.
Every price and projection is sortable on Players, and the six-game run for every club is on Fixtures.
Tell us where this is wrong
- Do you own De Cuyper, Groß or both? Tell us whether you're holding through the Liverpool and City games, and what you'd need to see to move.
- Tell us when a number looks wrong. This player, this figure, here's why. That's the most valuable message we can get.
- Show us your Gameweek 7 draft and why. Build it on the Team Planner, share the link, and name the one pick you'd defend against the model.
Send it through the feedback form for anything specific, or join the Discord if it needs a conversation. Both get read every day.
The Gameweek 7 picks, with our model's full squad and captain: Gameweek 7 tips. Until the deadline: Players for every projection, Fixtures for the difficulty grid, Team Planner to build your fifteen, and My Team to score your squad against ours.