Pascal Groß has scored more points than anyone in FPL this season, and he costs £5.8m. He is one of ten players under £6.5m returning more than six points per £1m. Our model says seven of the ten are running hot. The two that aren't are the ones worth buying first.
The ten best-value players under £6.5m
Minimum 300 minutes, sorted by points per £1m, as at 22 September:
| Player | Pos | Club | Price | Pts | Owned | Pts per £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Bogle | DEF | Leeds | £4.6m | 42 | 6.8% | 9.13 |
| Pascal Groß | MID | Brighton | £5.8m | 47 | 27.4% | 8.10 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | DEF | Brighton | £4.9m | 38 | 27.1% | 7.76 |
| Konstantinos Tzolakis | GKP | Hull City | £4.6m | 34 | 12.3% | 7.39 |
| James Tarkowski | DEF | Everton | £6.1m | 43 | 15.7% | 7.05 |
| Joško Gvardiol | DEF | Man City | £5.7m | 37 | 26.5% | 6.49 |
| Semi Ajayi | DEF | Hull City | £4.2m | 27 | 14.1% | 6.43 |
| Luka Vušković | DEF | Brighton | £5.0m | 32 | 3.5% | 6.40 |
| John Egan | DEF | Hull City | £4.1m | 26 | 7.1% | 6.34 |
| Kevin Schade | MID | Brentford | £6.2m | 39 | 10.6% | 6.29 |
Seven of the ten are defenders, and no forward makes the list. Promoted Hull City supply three: Tzolakis, Ajayi and Egan.
How many of them will keep it up?
Our model has scored Gameweeks 3–5 this season. Here is what it expected from each player in the gameweeks it projected him, against what he actually scored:
| Player | Expected | Actual | Actual ÷ expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bogle | 7.9 | 34 | 4.3× |
| Groß | 12.2 | 32 | 2.6× |
| Vušković (2 gameweeks) | 5.8 | 14 | 2.4× |
| Gvardiol | 11.2 | 23 | 2.1× |
| Schade | 13.2 | 26 | 2.0× |
| Tarkowski | 14.7 | 25 | 1.7× |
| De Cuyper | 13.1 | 21 | 1.6× |
| Tzolakis (2 gameweeks) | 8.5 | 8 | 0.9× |
| Egan (2 gameweeks) | 6.5 | 3 | 0.5× |
| Ajayi | no projection | — | — |
The model expected 93.1 points from these nine and they scored 186, double. Most of this season's cheap value is a hot run the model doesn't believe yet. Ajayi has no number because the model hasn't projected him at all this season.
Which of them has a floor?
Defensive contribution pays 2 points for 10 clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles by a defender, or 12 including recoveries for a midfielder. Matches where each player cleared it, Gameweeks 1–5:
| Player | Matches clearing the threshold |
|---|---|
| Tarkowski | 3 of 5 |
| Egan | 3 of 5 |
| Vušković | 2 of 5 |
| Bogle, Groß, De Cuyper, Gvardiol, Ajayi, Schade | 0 of 5 |
Tarkowski and Egan are the only two with a repeatable floor under their price. Put this table next to the one above and Egan is the standout: scoring under the model, with the same floor as Tarkowski, at £4.1m.
The ten, cheapest first
John Egan, £4.1m. The best case on this page. He has hit the defensive-contribution threshold in three of five games and is scoring below what the model expects, so there is nothing to regress. Hull's next six include only one difficulty-5 fixture, away at Arsenal in Gameweek 10.
Semi Ajayi, £4.2m. 27 points, with nothing to judge them against. The model hasn't projected him this season, and he has no defensive-contribution hits.
Jayden Bogle, £4.6m. The best points per £1m in the game, and the hottest run on this page: 4.3 times what the model expected. He has no defensive-contribution floor, and Leeds go to Arsenal (difficulty 5) in Gameweek 6.
Konstantinos Tzolakis, £4.6m. Scoring almost exactly what the model expects, so the 34 points aren't a fluke on its reading. Hull host Everton in Gameweek 6.
Maxim De Cuyper, £4.9m. The most-owned player here at 27.1%, so he is no longer a differential. He is running 1.6 times the model's number with no defensive floor.
Luka Vušković, £5.0m. Owned by 3.5%, the lowest on this page, with two defensive-contribution hits. The model has projected only two of his games.
Joško Gvardiol, £5.7m. Double the model's number and no defensive floor. City visit Liverpool in Gameweek 6, rated 4.
Pascal Groß, £5.8m. The top scorer in the game, at 2.6 times what the model expected. He is Brighton's first-choice penalty taker. Brighton go to Liverpool (4) and Manchester City (5) in Gameweeks 8 and 9.
James Tarkowski, £6.1m. Running hot at 1.7 times the model, but three of his five games have come with a defensive floor. Everton open at Hull, rated 2, then face Chelsea and Arsenal.
Kevin Schade, £6.2m. Double the model's number, no defensive floor. Brentford open away at Aston Villa and home to Liverpool, both rated 4.
Using this
Every player above has a match-by-match history on their own page. The full database, filterable by price, position and points per £1m, is in the Player Explorer. Weighing one of these against a Wildcard? See the Gameweek 6 draft.
Caveat. The model covers Gameweeks 3–5 only. It has no projections for Gameweeks 1–2, and three of these players were projected in only two of those three weeks. Three games is a small sample to separate luck from skill. Prices, points and ownership are as at 22 September and will move before the Gameweek 6 deadline on 10 October.