£100.0m exactly. 72.6 projected points for the Gameweek 6 starting eleven, captain doubled. Bruno Fernandes gets the Gameweek 6 armband, and Erling Haaland takes it back in Gameweek 7.
This is a Wildcard draft: all 15 picked from scratch over the next eight gameweeks, 6 to 13. Build it yourself, or start from here, in the Team Planner.
The squad
| Pos | Player | Club | Price | Owned | GW6 | GW6–13 | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKP | Tzolakis | HUL | £4.6m | 12.3% | 4.32 | 34.1 | Has played every minute this season |
| DEF | Guéhi | MCI | £6.0m | 18.3% | 5.03 | 45.5 | Best-projected defender under £8.0m |
| DEF | Gvardiol | MCI | £5.7m | 26.5% | 4.65 | 42.3 | Same City home run, second half of the pair |
| DEF | Silva | BOU | £5.0m | 0.4% | 4.64 | 42.6 | Level with Calafiori, £0.8m cheaper |
| DEF | Davis | IPS | £4.0m | 6.9% | 4.55 | 33.0 | £4.0m, and hasn't missed a minute |
| DEF | Thomas | COV | £4.0m | 8.6% | 4.39 | 36.1 | No Coventry fixture rated above 3 |
| MID | Bruno Fernandes (C) | MUN | £11.9m | 38.8% | 8.48 | 61.0 | Highest Gameweek 6 projection in the game |
| MID | Mbeumo | MUN | £7.9m | 20.8% | 7.49 | 53.3 | 53.3 for £7.9m |
| MID | Saka | ARS | £9.5m | 13.5% | 7.44 | 54.4 | Arsenal's first-choice penalty taker |
| MID | Tavernier | BOU | £6.1m | 6.7% | 4.85 | 41.0 | On Bournemouth's penalties while both takers ahead of him are out |
| FWD | Haaland (V) | MCI | £15.6m | 73.6% | 8.27 | 69.7 | Highest eight-week projection in the game |
Bench, in order: Bentley (COV, £4.0m, second keeper), then Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m, 35.9), Zirkzee (MUN, £5.3m) and Hughes (CRY, £4.4m).
Formation 5-4-1. Five defenders start because the model rates all five above Calvert-Lewin for Gameweek 6 alone, where he projects 3.44.
The three decisions that shaped it
Where the premium money went. Haaland, Bruno Fernandes, Saka and Mbeumo cost £44.9m between them, 45% of the budget. Bruno captains Gameweek 6: he projects 8.48 at home to Spurs, while Haaland projects 8.27 away at Liverpool. The armband goes back to Haaland for Gameweek 7, at home to Ipswich, where he projects 11.69, the biggest single-week number in the model's whole window.
Which cheap players paid for it. Davis, Thomas and Bentley cost £4.0m each, and Hughes £4.4m. Davis and Thomas start, and have played 450 and 437 of a possible 450 minutes this season. Bentley, Zirkzee and Hughes are there to fill the squad. The model expects them to play 31, 11 and 21 minutes a week.
Which fixture swing is being bought. Manchester City play Ipswich, Brighton, Fulham and Leeds at home in Gameweeks 7, 9, 11 and 13, and all four are rated 2. That buys Guéhi, Gvardiol and Haaland from one club, and the home run is the reason. Bournemouth have four fixtures rated 2 in the same window, which backs Silva and Tavernier.
What would change this draft
All 15 were fully fit as at 22 September. The model leaves out flagged players altogether. That's why Cole Palmer and João Pedro, both at 75%, and Declan Rice, at 75% with an unspecified knock, aren't here. Phil Foden is suspended until 17 October.
Three risks sit inside the squad itself.
- Two clubs are maxed out. City fill three shirts (Guéhi, Gvardiol, Haaland), and so do United (Bruno Fernandes, Mbeumo, Zirkzee). One piece of team news at either club touches three players.
- The bench can't cover. Calvert-Lewin is the only bench player the model expects to play. If a defender or midfielder misses out, his replacement scores close to nothing.
- City's hardest game is inside the window: Gameweek 12, away at Arsenal, rated 5. That week City's three players are the squad's biggest exposure.
A squad built for Gameweek 6 alone would share nine of these fifteen players. The horizon is doing the rest of the work.
We'll re-run the model and the availability check on 8 October, once the internationals are back. Then we'll update this squad before the Gameweek 6 deadline at 10:00 UTC on 10 October.
Using this
Build this exact fifteen, or start from it and swap in your own calls, in the Team Planner. If you're deciding whether to play the Wildcard at all rather than a Free Hit or Bench Boost, the chip guide has the full picture.
Caveat. These projections come from the model's 22 September run, which covers Gameweeks 5 and earlier. It is our in-season bridge model, which hasn't yet passed the evaluation we hold the full model to. Its average error is about 2.1 points per player per gameweek, so a gap smaller than that between two players is noise. Prices and ownership are as at 22 September.