Jayden Bogle has beaten our expected-points model by 26.1 points, the most of any player in Gameweeks 3–5 of 2026/27. Those are the only gameweeks the model has scored this season, because it has no projections for Gameweeks 1–2.
Each player is compared only in the gameweeks the model projected him. 153 players have played 180 minutes or more in those gameweeks.
Over-performers
Top 15 by gap, with a tie at 15th:
| Player | Club | Expected | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Bogle | Leeds | 7.9 | 34 | +26.1 |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | 12.2 | 32 | +19.8 |
| Alisson Becker | Liverpool | 8.3 | 25 | +16.7 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas | Brighton | 6.9 | 22 | +15.1 |
| Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 8.9 | 23 | +14.1 |
| Tyrick Mitchell | Crystal Palace | 10.0 | 23 | +13.0 |
| Kevin Schade | Brentford | 13.2 | 26 | +12.8 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson † | Leeds | 2.0 | 14 | +12.0 |
| Brian Brobbey | Sunderland | 8.1 | 20 | +11.9 |
| Joško Gvardiol | Man City | 11.2 | 23 | +11.8 |
| Murillo | Nott'm Forest | 6.8 | 18 | +11.2 |
| Harvey Barnes | Newcastle | 12.0 | 23 | +11.0 |
| Ethan Pinnock † | Coventry City | 2.4 | 13 | +10.6 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | Everton | 6.5 | 17 | +10.5 |
| James Tarkowski | Everton | 14.7 | 25 | +10.3 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | Spurs | 11.8 | 22 | +10.3 |
† The model expected these two to barely play: under one point a gameweek. Their gap is mostly a wrong call on minutes, not on what they'd score once on the pitch.
Under-performers
Top 15 by shortfall:
| Player | Club | Expected | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | Man Utd | 21.1 | 6 | −15.1 |
| Malick Thiaw | Newcastle | 14.5 | 5 | −9.5 |
| Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 17.0 | 8 | −9.0 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Man City | 17.5 | 9 | −8.5 |
| Igor Thiago | Brentford | 16.3 | 8 | −8.3 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | Liverpool | 15.6 | 8 | −7.6 |
| Reinildo Mandava | Sunderland | 7.6 | 0 | −7.6 |
| Robin Roefs | Sunderland | 11.3 | 4 | −7.3 |
| Đorđe Petrović | Bournemouth | 11.0 | 4 | −7.0 |
| Adrien Truffert | Bournemouth | 11.7 | 5 | −6.7 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | 13.7 | 7 | −6.7 |
| Sven Botman | Newcastle | 13.4 | 7 | −6.4 |
| Rayan | Bournemouth | 12.2 | 6 | −6.2 |
| Yoane Wissa | Newcastle | 9.2 | 3 | −6.2 |
| Harry Maguire | Man Utd | 11.0 | 5 | −6.0 |
What the gap means
Over-performing means the model hasn't caught up yet. It could be a hot run, a soft set of fixtures, or real improvement that needs more matches before the model trusts it.
Under-performing means the model still rates the player above his results. It sees his minutes, role and fixtures and expects more. That is either bad luck about to turn, or an early sign his role has changed.
The over-performers' gaps are bigger than the under-performers'. Bogle's +26.1 is almost double Bruno Fernandes' −15.1. Three gameweeks is a short window either way.